Spring has sprung or has it?

Are universities overcoming the policy chaos surrounding overseas students and moving back toward near-record enrolments, despite ongoing uncertainty in government migration policies? While Australia and the UK are seeing positive trends, the same cannot be said for Canada, and the future remains uncertain in the U.S. The question remains whether the international education sector will stick with the status quo and just “take advantage of others’ misfortune” when it comes to recruiting international students, or take matters into their own hands and proactively focus on international student outcomes and employability to future proof their international student recruitment now and into the future.

Immigration policy in the US remains a divisive issue, recently reignited by a clash between tech mogul Elon Musk and MAGA proponents over the H-1B visa program and broader immigration reform. Musk has emerged as a strong advocate for skilled immigrants, arguing that they are essential to innovation and economic growth. Meanwhile, conservative commentators and "America First" supporters have pushed back against proposals for reform, calling for tighter restrictions. This debate highlights the ongoing challenges within the U.S. merit-based immigration system and raises pressing questions about the future of highly skilled immigrants, particularly those seeking opportunities in Silicon Valley or elite universities. For prospective immigrants, visa availability, green card caps, and the long-term economic impact of these policies remain crucial concerns.

It seems that despite the imminent election and policy uncertainty, international students still want to study in Australia. Vicki Thomson, chief executive of the Group of Eight leading research-intensive universities, criticised the latest government measures, arguing that replacing one flawed process with another—essentially a slowdown in visa processing—has only shifted the goalposts again. Universities had budgeted based on numbers provided by the government months ago when they were committed to international student caps, only to find these figures abruptly altered with little explanation, when the proposed legislation was defeated by an unholy alliance between the Greens and Coalition late last year.

Despite these challenges, early indications suggest that semester one enrolments for 2025 will remain steady compared to last year. Government data supports this, showing that while visa applications from July to November were down 26% compared to the same period in 2023, the total number of visas granted was down only 10% to 151,150. In fact, the number of higher education visas granted in that period reached a record high of 87,133, reflecting the time lag between applications and approvals. Migration expert Abul Rizvi warned that 18 months of policy tweaks and last year’s failed attempt to impose caps had left the government without effective tools to control numbers. He described the reliance on slow visa processing and high refusal rates as an unsustainable strategy. Meanwhile, Phil Honeywood, chief executive of the International Education Association of Australia, pointed out a stark hypocrisy in government policy, noting that record numbers of working holiday visas are being issued while international students are being scapegoated. He questioned why working holidaymakers, who also take up rental accommodation, were not subjected to the same scrutiny.

In the UK, recent UCAS figures suggest a positive shift in international student interest. Early applications for the 2025 cycle have increased by 4.7%, alongside a 1.3% rise in overall applications. These figures come after a 1.9% decline in international applications for the 2024 cycle, which coincided with government policies barring most international students from bringing family dependants unless enrolled in a postgraduate research course. UK universities experienced a noticeable drop in postgraduate applications from key markets such as India, Nigeria, and China following these restrictions. However, the latest figures indicate that the UK remains an attractive study destination despite these hurdles.

There are also encouraging signs emerging for UK universities from the January 2025 intake. Data from Times Higher Education suggests that international student deposits made through Enroly for the upcoming term are 27% higher than the previous year, while acceptance letter issuances have risen by 14%. This turnaround follows a challenging 2024, when student visa applications in the first three quarters of the year were down 16% compared to 2023. The UK’s resurgence comes at a time when Canada and Australia have struggled to maintain international student numbers, creating an opportunity for UK institutions to reverse their previous declines and position 2025 as a year of growth.

A shift in government messaging appears to be playing a role in this renewed interest. In September 2024, Professor Max Lu, vice-chancellor of the University of Surrey, credited education secretary Bridget Phillipson for fostering a more welcoming tone towards international students. Phillipson’s speech, delivered less than a month into her role in the Labour government, emphasised the economic, cultural, and societal contributions of international students. According to Prof. Lu, agents in China, India, and Southeast Asia provided overwhelmingly positive feedback, and the university saw an improvement in international postgraduate conversion rates following the speech.

While some source regions are showing strong growth, others remain sluggish. Enroly data highlights a surge in deposits from East Africa (+84%), West Africa (+27%), and South Asia (+31%), with key growth markets including Kenya, Nigeria, and Nepal. However, deposits from students in the Middle East and East Asia have fallen by more than 30%. The impact of the former Sunak government’s January 2024 decision to bar dependants for most master’s-taught courses is also evident, with deposits for these programmes slightly down compared to the previous year. In contrast, postgraduate research programmes, which still allow dependants, saw deposits increase by 15%, while undergraduate deposits grew by 7%.

Plus, the UK’s existing policy towards post-study work remains far from certain with the Immigration White Paper soon to be published by government  and as reported in The Times, Ministers are widely thought to be considering “Tightening UK post study work rights,” which would jeopardise the beginnings of a recovery in international student numbers and further destabilise UK university finances.

It is thought that the White Paper will propose that students from overseas must find a “graduate level” job to qualify for the Graduate Route visa. While the accuracy of the report has not been verified, protecting current post-study work arrangements has long been seen as a priority for the sector in upcoming government interventions, with the future of the Graduate Route far from certain.

Despite ongoing policy uncertainty, international student demand seems to be holding up in both Australia and the UK. While visa restrictions and political rhetoric have created obstacles, early 2025 indicators suggest that demand is rebounding. For both countries, the challenge will be navigating future policy shifts following the Australian election and the UK Immigration White Paper, while ensuring that international students remain welcomed and supported, particularly with reference to their employability post-study.  All data points to international students and their funders increasingly looking to evidence of the return on investment in their higher education before embarking upon it. Yet, universities are still reluctant across the board to publish international graduate outcomes and destinations data, particularly for those students returning home following their studies.

The question remains whether the international education sector will sit idly by and observe policy missteps in competing destinations or take proactive steps to secure its own future. Rather than relying on the misfortunes of others, universities must focus on enhancing international student outcomes and employability to build a sustainable recruitment strategy.

Long-term success will depend not just on attracting students but on ensuring their academic and professional success post-graduation. Institutions that invest in strong support systems, career pathways, and global alumni networks will be best positioned to withstand future policy fluctuations and shifting migration trends. Will higher education be a passive observer of the policies defining its future, or will it take an active role in proving that, far from being a drain on domestic resources, international students exemplify soft power, as the majority of them return home following their studies, drive economic growth in their home economies and, in some cases, future foreign direct investment back into the countries where they studied.