Will the UK capitalise on Trump’s H-1B visa shock?

Will the UK capitalise on Trump’s H-1B visa shock?

While there may not have been any university vice-chancellors at the Windsor State Banquet last week, probably for the best, as we know how the present administration feels about academia. Donald Trump has inadvertently gone a long way toward saving UK universities, many of which are in dire financial straits. The royals played their part with a flawless state visit. Any time relations with the US look dicey, the Government should just roll out the royals to get things back on side, a reciprocal royal trip to the US now looks likely. Beneath the pomp and ceremony of Windsor Castle, two developments during and just after the visit could reshape the landscape for UK higher education for decades to come.

First was a wave of tech investment announcements that underscored the UK’s growing role as Europe’s digital powerhouse. The Government unveiled a record-breaking £150 billion in US investment commitments during the visit. Microsoft pledged £22 billion to expand UK data centres and build what is being described as Britain’s largest AI supercomputer. Google committed £5 billion to new infrastructure and capacity. CoreWeave confirmed a £1.5 billion partnership with Scotland’s DataVita to build one of Europe’s most efficient AI centres. Collectively, these deals are projected to create thousands of jobs annually, particularly in advanced computing, AI, and green technologies. The message was clear: the UK is seen by US firms as the most fertile ground for technological innovation outside Silicon Valley.

Then came the second development – and it took place not in London but in Washington. On his return to the US, President Trump signed a presidential proclamation that imposed what can only be described as a huge “signing bonus” on American companies seeking to recruit international talent. From now on, firms will face a $100,000 annual fee for each new H-1B visa they sponsor. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick was unambiguous: “A hundred-thousand dollars a year for H-1B visas, and all of the big companies are on board.” The Guardian described the move as “a potentially major blow to the US tech industry [and US universities,] which rely heavily on workers and students from India and China.”

The impact will be profound. For decades, America’s strength laid in its ability to attract, train, and retain the world’s best talents. But the new fee fundamentally alters the economics. Amazon, the largest sponsor of H-1B visas, secured over 10,000 approvals in the first half of 2025 alone. Tata Consultancy Services, one of the giants of the IT services industry, received around 5,500. Microsoft, Meta, Apple and Google are all among the top half-dozen sponsors. For these firms, the new charge represents billions in additional costs, concentrated precisely in the areas of the economy most reliant on skilled international workers. For Indian and Chinese graduates in particular, the message is stark: America’s doors are not closed, but the price of entry has risen beyond the reach of all but the most deep-pocketed employers.

For the UK, this is nothing short of a once-in-a-generation opportunity. At the very moment when the United States is making it prohibitively expensive to recruit international graduates, Britain could present itself as the destination of choice for the world’s “best and brightest.” With billions in new tech investment and thousands of high-value jobs on the horizon, the conditions could hardly be any better. Yet the danger is that, just as the UK’s competitive advantage becomes visible, government policy may undercut it.

The Government’s new immigration white paper proposes cutting the Graduate Route post-study work visa from two years to 18 months. In November’s Budget, the Chancellor is also expected to confirm the introduction of an international student levy – a measure that could cost English universities hundreds of millions of pounds. For institutions already struggling with deficits, as the Office for Students has repeatedly warned, this would be a hammer blow. And for students deciding between the UK, Canada, Australia or continental Europe, the message would be muddled: why choose Britain if opportunities to stay and build a career are shrinking while costs rise?

The stakes could not be higher. By the Government’s own estimates, international students contribute more than £42 billion to the UK economy each year. They are not just a revenue stream but a vital source of skills, diversity, and global connections. If Trump’s America is pricing itself out of the market, Britain has a chance to pick up the slack. But that requires stability, not further uncertainty. It requires a signal that the UK values international students for more than their tuition fees, and that it is prepared to support them into meaningful careers, whether those careers are in London, Lagos or Lahore.

At Asia Careers Group SDN BHD, we see the bigger picture. Our dataset of more than 120,000 international graduates shows that while many do take advantage of the Graduate Route to gain UK work experience, a majority eventually return home. In China, for example, over 70% of returning UK and Australian graduates are employed within six months, with average salaries almost 40% higher than those of domestic peers.

In India, UK graduates outperform their locally educated counterparts by 20–25% in early-career salary benchmarks. In Malaysia and Singapore, returnees from UK universities secure roles at leading global employers at rates significantly higher than their domestically educated peers. These are not marginal benefits: they are the real-world returns that sustain the demand for international education. The true test of a British university is not whether it can keep every graduate in the UK, but whether its graduates succeed globally.

Nick Hillman of HEPI has consistently argued that international students are “savvier than ever about the return on their investment.” They want evidence that their education will lead to employability. Yet too often the debate in Westminster has reduced them to immigration statistics, with little attention paid to outcomes. If Britain is serious about seizing the opportunity presented by Trump’s H-1B policy, then employability must become central to its international strategy. That means not only retaining the Graduate Route in its current form but also compelling every university to track and support international graduates into work, both in the UK and back home.

There is precedent here. When post-study work was abolished in 2012, international recruitment collapsed, and the sector stagnated for much of the decade. Only with the reintroduction of the Graduate Route in 2019 did enrolments recover. To repeat the mistake now, just as the US is handing Britain a competitive gift, would be extraordinary short-sightedness. Britain must offer transparency not just in admissions and immigration rules but in graduate outcomes. Students will not invest in a UK education if they cannot see clear pathways to successful careers.

For the UK technology sector, the opportunity is immense. The Financial Times has already reported on shortages of AI and data science skills, with employers warning that a lack of talent could slow innovation. International graduates can help fill that gap. But they will only come if they believe that the UK is stable, welcoming and worth the cost. A levy combined with reduced post-study work sends precisely the opposite message.

This is not simply about immigration control. It is about economic competitiveness, employability, and Britain’s positioning in a shifting global order. Trump’s proclamation has changed the calculus. The United States is, for the first time in decades, actively discouraging skilled international workers. Other countries are already moving to fill the vacuum. Canada has extended work rights in high-demand sectors. Australia has tied post-study work to skills shortages. If the UK turns inward while others move forward, it risks squandering an advantage it did not even have to earn.

Donald Trump may not have intended it, but his return to the White House has opened a door for British universities. The combination of £150 billion in new US tech investment, thousands of jobs on the horizon, and America’s sudden retreat from affordable skilled migration could be transformative. But windfalls require follow-through. If Britain cuts post-study work rights, imposes new levies, and fails to compel institutions to support their international graduates, the moment will slip away.

The choice is simple. Will the UK rise to the challenge by investing in international futures, or watch as others take the prize?