UK race riots a perfect storm before the start of the academic year

The UK could be fooled into thinking they dodged a bullet when the MAC review concluded the Graduate Route should remain in its present form at the same time as Canada instigated international student caps at 20% below previous numbers earlier this year and Australia having just hiked its visa charges for international student visas, is now in the process of implementing their own international student caps.  In the case of Australia, the government is considering limiting international students to 40% or less of the student population at individual institutions. Plus, with the possibility of a Trump presidency international students would be right to look to the UK, that is until riots erupted on UK streets.

UK institutions had already faced significant headwinds earlier this year when the Tories revoked dependent visas for postgraduate taught students, as a result applications for sponsored study visas have decreased by 28%, a consequence of visa restrictions imposed by the previous government. The Home Office reported receiving 28,200 applications last month, down from 38,900 in June 2023.

Most student visa applications are typically submitted during the summer, universities are anxiously hoping for an uptick before September. However, recent data shared with the Guardian suggests that the sector's difficulties are likely to persist.

In the 2021-22 academic year, over 240,000 full-time international students began taught postgraduate courses, alongside 104,000 undergraduates. If Enroly’s data reflects the broader sector, around 150,000 fewer international students are expected to arrive on UK campuses this autumn.

Given the heavy reliance of many universities on income from international tuition fees, combined with the freeze on tuition fees for UK students in England, experts have warned that this situation could pose significant challenges for the sector.

With more than 70 UK institutions having announced severance or redundancy programs, and approximately 40% anticipating a deficit in 2023-24.

The financial collapse of one or more universities is now a real possibility, which could have economic and social consequences for the regions where they are located. Add to this the recent social unrest in many of the UK’s most prominent university cities: Belfast; Bristol; Birmingham; Cardiff; Hull; Leeds; Leicester; Liverpool; London; Manchester; Nottingham; Portsmouth etc. the UK is facing significant challenges when it comes to this year’s international student enrolments.

India, Malaysia, Indonesia, Nigeria, Nepal and the United Arab Emirates – along with Australia - have all issued travel alerts urging their citizens to be careful if travelling to the UK, some of which are the UK’s largest student markets - for example India and Nigeria. This follows violent riots which have seen police battling with Far-Right demonstrators in towns and cities across England and Northern Ireland.

So, what is the solution for UK universities facing such headwinds?

Since 2019, the sector and its representatives have had ample opportunity to future-proof UK higher education against harmful government anti-immigration policies. They could have established a unique competitive advantage by leveraging robust, representative data on international graduate outcomes / destinations and staved off harmful government legislation.

If social unrest persists and damaging newspaper headlines proliferate during the peak university admissions period, accusing international students of “taking” domestic students places or international graduates for ‘taking’ UK graduate jobs. Despite the Education Secretaries warm words and the MAC Review’s recommendations, post-study work for international students could be drastically reduced or eliminated, what is the UK sector’s 'Plan B'?

With over 70 UK institutions already announcing significant cost-cutting measures and redundancies, the only viable path forward is to reallocate resources towards supporting international graduates as they transition to successful early careers in their home countries. This is only achievable if the sector gains immediate access to non-EU international graduate outcomes data, which can be used to counter the damaging headlines likely to emerge during Clearing and in response to the race riots.

There was much to applaud in the new Labour education minister Bridget Phillipson’s recent speech, and it spells a welcome “wind change” for UK higher education, but optimism should be seen in the context of Keir Starmer’s speech when he said “We won't be content just to pull the easy lever of importing skills. We're turning the page on that.”

International students “are brave. They move to a new culture, far away from their homes and their families. They take a leap of faith, hoping to develop new skills and chase new horizons. And I am enormously proud that so many want to take that leap here in the UK. And we will do everything we can to help them succeed,” and this includes UK international graduates transitioning to successful careers back home.

If Starmer’s focus on increasing skills at home and UK soft power overseas driving overseas inward investment into the UK, if universities are serious about driving change & playing by the rules to reduce immigration over time, they must pivot to supporting our “brave” international students get great jobs back in their home countries.

What is clear is that waiting another five years to act is not an option, especially when the future employment prospects of international students, the UK’s international reputation for international education, and significant numbers of university jobs are at stake.